Monday, June 10, 2013

Doing Business in 21st Century India; How to Profit in Tomorrow's Most Exciting Market' By Gunjan Bagla.

Doing Business in 21st Century India; How to Profit in Tomorrow's Most Exciting Market' By Gunjan Bagla.


Review



By Sampson Iroabuchi Onwuka



The book runs like a three dimensional transnational promotional on the latest advances in Indian economy with measured dispatches on the historical past of India leading to the financial event of 1991 currency change by Manmohan Singh, who is current prime minister of India. This 1991 single event may or may not have woken India from sleep, it certainly handed it destiny to guide the transition strategy of a major fraction from South East Asia into the 21st Century.

To be sure, Manmohan Singh does not exorcise a magic wan over today's India's economic progress, either did the re-denomination of the local currency account for this new India, rather, 21st century India has been a major player of economic community of the world - past and present - from Akbar the Great of the Mughal (Mo'gul) Muslim empire to the Dutch and British East India Company and only needed the platform to begin to show.

This Book is a good recherche on this economy. The author of the Book, Gunja Bagla, details out the growing sectors in Indian economy; defense, Infrastructure, Pharmacy, Knowledge based, Information based technologies and challenges any company is likely to face in their first visit to India and how Investing India should be in your mid-cap to large-cap companies portfolio. For instance in India these days, there are locally produced Car companies that work hand in globe with International Companies such as Hyndai group to produce a local Indian Variety; the Indica, the Indigo, cars that now rival their counterparts from around the world.

There is no doubt that India has a duty and a future as a world’s largest democracy and a capitalist based economy from its earlier years till presently. This duty involves leading an Asian example in its commitment to Food and Drug Administration. For the record, the author highlights that India as at 2008, has "...Seventy-Five FDA approved facilities, more than any country",  

Besides the cultural backdrop to India Society and Foreign Direct Investment uptake in the past 20 years, the author argues for an optimistic future which is though riddled with ‘present’ adverse uncertainty ranging for Energy to Population growth, may yet prove the overall alternative suitable for a Global Macro which is over-bearing on the USA. The role call on the names of companies presently operating in India includes Toyota, Honda, Accenture, IBM, EDS, Cognizant, ACS, CSC, Hewlett-Packard, these companies does essential proclaim a foreign invasion or the Amanda, but cast a probability light on the future of these companies judging as from IBM of US and Lenovo of China trend exchange.

The dice between the relevance of China to India was also cast, and within the indexes are leading indicators which suggest all kinds of numbers for shades of Investors. Bagla mentions that there are knowledge based software that may help an outsider grasp the structural dynamics of the Information class and the range of outsourced products. Some of these include "...Information Technology Outsourcing (ITO), Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Knowledge process Outsourcing (KPO), Legal Process Outsourcing (LPO), Transcription Outsourcing (TO), contract Research Outsourcing (CRO), information technology enabled services (ITES)..." etc. 

Bagla mentioned that "Fifty thousand vessels a year pass through the straights of Malacca, South of Singapore, making up one-quarter of all Oceanic trade worldwide. At one point, the Navigable Channel is just a few miles wide. The Nicobar Islands, six hundred miles east of Chennai in the Bay of Bengal, are part of India and offer excellent potential choke point for this trade" The leap in Ship building industries was enhanced by Hyndai. Then, there is the Suzuki group, each vying for a piece of resurgent India, each trying to undo the influence of Reliance and its family.

According to some sources as also described by Bagla "Reliance is now building the world's Sixth largest refinery, a $6.1 Billion plant next to it's existing refinery. California-based Chevron Corporation decided to invest $300 million in return for 5 percent Ownership. At this new refinery, Exxon Mobil's research and engineering unit provided the technology for he world's largest sulfuric acid alkylation plant...." The 580, 000-barrel-per-day refinery on completion will enhance India prospects of a 5.5 million barrels a day.

Power Equipment Maker BHEL, Cement Producer Gratin, engineering firm Larsen and Toubro, India's largest private sector company, Reliance Industries Ltd, the world's lowest cost steel maker Tata Steel; which is one of the few Indian companies that chose to enlist only on the Indian Market.  

In India today, there are General Electric products, Foxboro Equipment and Power Products, Rockwell Automation and other Equipment based Industries across India. But these are also in China. In India today there are the financial products such from 'Citibank' and 'UBS' and there are others as with others in China. As such the point about the products only serve to assure the reader of what is on-going, that India local companies are part of the technology expansion yet, that more than any country, India has Award winning Industries companies in drug manufacturing, Brake System Engineering and Steering. These are watershed episodes of an Indian Economy that seen it all all.  

But from a practiced past and an Indian American experience, Bagla, defends the territorial ambitions of India in its backyard, widening the military Provisions from long range Ballistic Missiles to amphibious surface to air to water weapons in river ‘choke ends’. That "Military Planners in India view their strategic interests spanning the India Ocean littoral from Africa to the Straight of Malacca; they want its aircraft to be able to reach central Asia and its ballistic missiles to be a threat to more than just Pakistan"

Of course these are Investment Articles fitting for established societies such as the USA and Europe. Yet from these loftily with advanced economy, the book somewhat disappoints. The Book laminates on USA and European Investments in India, it throws light on Asia to Asia investment, it did not distribute the role of India in the future of World, and it did not specify why anyone would be willing to come to India where as China is believed to be far more rewarding.

Critic

For anyone interested in Investment, which is really long-term, there is very little provisions or Information for long-term India and principally speaking, Bonds. There is little information regarding limits of expectation or general of what is expected of those who stand to benefit. Growth and tighter financial constraints and the use of currency derivatives is not Toys are Us, clarifying India will not absolve it of Operational Risk, yet it may include the Invest Crowd to the Long Term India future which immediate Investment in Infrastructure in India does not replace.  

Secondly, some of the Indicators that he highlighted in his book as not necessarily standard products or at least acceptable as far as the rest of the world may be concerned. For instance, explicating the implications of the US Sarbanes-Oxley Act in terms of functional financial Derivatives and Risky Asset exposures of foreign financial instrument and product, may be necessary information if not preferred information given the expositions that both accompanies the investment of Insured and in recent times 'Uninsured' U.S Banks or foreign denominated currency. 

It is obvious that India is a country of many cultural colors and has one of the world's longest lasting religions 'Hindu'. It is true that not nearly everyone in India is Hindu as such when from the author we read of world religions; Christianity, Judaism, Janis, Sikh, Hindu, Islam, as part of Indian Intellectual and Economical table cloth, that each armed with an artisan set of workmanship in an effort to divide the elephant; India, among themselves, we are forced to listen to the author, Gunjan Bagla, since articles of faith on the platform of money is one of the issues dividing East (Middle East) from the Rest of the world.

There may perhaps be a strain or hints of 21st century India as an undying example of separation of faith and money, or the inevitability of investing in any economy free of prosecution, with or without response to the greater and more demanding religious influences.

But this was not a major deal in the Great Unraveling of Bagla's Investing in 21st Century India. Bagla maintains the quality of Indian business in terms of world globalization, and maintains that expectations for the great companies in the India and many parts of the Asia. In reality, there are several development that has taken place in the world and in our world, and nothing in his book or India offers anything beyond what the Investor can obtain Short-term going by the rates in the India.

The author is Hung Over on a India that is not so much a Sun but a financial Satellite for U.S and Europe, where as India in recent times has more than surpassed many European countries in the last few years, including England which was the last of Indian Colonial. This backhand measure of India by the author reveals India as a country that is struggling with its past, unsure of itself and relying mainland on Europe or the Americans to expand their growth.

Thirdly, we wonder why the author  failed to position India as the next best thing instead of listing the best big companies coming to India. It may have been a dream of India to be like the West, but from the rest of World, the day is breaking and there are new and urgent Investment realities. Interest Rates and Investment also go together and Scheduled Disclosure dates can offer assistance to Credit Portfolio problems.

As such an Investor will likely ask what India will do different if China was generating more expense power for the smallest dollars and when Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland was at some point attracting $420 million a day and kept prices reasonably low and backed it with a dyke of well educated labor society. And part of the means China ensues its economic penetration to many parts of the World, commercializing on its success and helping impoverished and inaccessible areas of the world. This is important. 

Fourthly, It is once said that primary reason for ensuing balance sheet risk "...is to protect the U.S dollar value of foreign currency denominated net monetary assets from the effects of volatility in foreign exchange prior that might occur prior to their conversion to U.S dollars." (Grouhy, Galai, Mark; 2006), how does India insure that the statement of Singh that India in 1991 that India was a 'Defaulter' of its obligation does not repeat itself in nearest estimable future.

Fifthly, The author did not mentions who is who in India saving main events in Bollywood and Pharmacy, which decorated along the straights of Indian religious mosaic - to prove a point. There is no mention of celebrated or world or Asian known Indian Champions of Business and Bank Operation and mapping Rupee denomination to absorb fluctuation. 

One area the book did not mention very well and would have scored a lot of points is the aspect of matching the overall US dollars escorted into India, by local Indian Investment. Part of this would entail the logic of expansion of Indian Banks and Financial in U.S, which is active as of 2013, which encourages has encouraged Commodity Swaps via South America and virtual transnational 'Swaption' through a third party.  

These areas were not discoursed by Gunja Bagla, but in future, the author of Investing in India will do a lot of good in long term Investment.

 The Book belongs to the same genre as Thomas Freidman’s ‘World is Flat’ which Ferguson ‘Ascent of Money’ 2008, challenged as lacking in diction and for supposing that earning $5 a day in name of outsourcing  meant a world that is prosperous and ‘flat’ in spite of Child labor and India poverty rules.

Gunjan Bagla obviously sugar coated these dark and avuncular boulevards of doing business in India, the problems of Child Labor which is believed outlawed but still evident in many ways than one in India. For sure we can say for certain that this is not based on the will drive away the problems of business in that society rather, Child Labor and under--employed may be a result of Judicial Inactivity of India, it may also be due to the poverty of quality of law enforcement.

The Book suffers in quality for the mere focus on India-USA focus with tiptoes on Europe, which makes Bagla a victim of his experiences in the West. It reduces India to a Satellite of more Advance economies, whereas India as a major financial and technology player for the overall economy of world. The Book is useful and should be subjected to tall review.

If Friedman says that the ‘World is Flat’, it is an statement that many people including the rest of us may likely accept, and in terms of Bagla and India, the statement also applies saving for the collective thesis or guiding philosophy which both books lack.

The World may be curved for all we know, but Bagla does not engage us from there, but we come away from his book fulfilled with a diatribe on Indian prosperity and a possibility of an India who may yet surpass China. This is not the case today.

Between prosperity and poverty is economic growth, which now and in future is the gap India must broach. The Investments from all and asunder is a different matter, and in 21st Century India, may or may not follow the discourses of Gunja Bagla.

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