A Reaction to U.S June Job Reports

U.S Job Reports for June 2013 show that the U.S added about 195,000, 400 jobs less from previous month and unemployment remained at 7.6% unchanged. The U.S institute of Supply Management reported that the index of U.S factor rose from 50.9 from 49 - a difference of 1.9 - which naturally reverts to the growth of economy assuming housing which has not been a factor didn’t force adjustment. In kind, it is also reported that export orders of durable goods increased from 54.5% to 51 and is adjudged a consequence of shortfalls in Japan business environment and quantitative easing in Europe leading to more new areas of growth.

Overall, the world of manufacturing increased over the month in Europe but dipped in the United States, and with many new graduates finding jobs – especially in tech market the numbers of employed Americans. The attention is now turned towards unemployment numbers at recurrent 7.6%, more than 1% of the formal target of Obama administration and the Federal Reserve.

Given the fact that some states in U.S for instance North Carolina ended the benefit of 70, 000 people and has no plans of acquiring new Federal Debt, the 7.6% unemployment takes on a whole new meaning.

These days we may notice the rise of pure play economies which constitutes a part of what some likely regard as the New Economy, has brought other avenues of business trust, to the degree of compromising people information without their knowing it. It is now an old theory that the Feds and Obama shooting up for 7% unemployment may be gearing the country towards anything new, perhaps the theory is not without meaning since U.S at this period is either motivated towards new grounds in spite of the fears that accompanied the avoidable 2008 financial crash.

It is not correct that stocks have to go up all the time, and is not accurate that stocks that went up have to come down.

Prices change due to circumstances that are usually beyond the control of the market but when prices are impacted by causes that are well known, the staying power of the shock tend to last longer than normal retraction period. Stock prices may fluctuate due to changes in the economy but when they become volatile like the 2008 incidents – which could be avoided – they bring far reaching changes and consequences.

Perhaps attentions is not necessarily placed on what the employment numbers are saying about U.S or what the manufacturing indexes are leading us to believe about our economy or the International market, rather, the U.S economy may be recovering with due respect to competitive age of Small Caps new products or Small to Mid cap companies in U.S strength shown in areas where matured companies once had preeminence.

Secondary to this new development is that manufacturing has been to new meaning from what in recent times available and in spite of the changes that accompanies this period in the economic life of any country, these new companies may be telling us something, especially in the area of food production and agriculture.

                                                                   II

What has happened with the Americans manufacturing in recent times is that with Jobs has moved elsewhere for instance China created opportunity for small companies and new IPOs or some new companies with entirely new approach to business to enter the economy. Of course China new reversals in terms of the exchange rate are giving tendency for a claw back of these transported businesses. This process is form of transition, and it is nowadays regarded as Transition Strategy.  

The strength of any economy is measured by how quickly it transforms the life of citizens from poverty level to higher level and how they do it. The rate (ratio) at which this happens in respect to other markets (demand and supply) forms the estimate of the nation's 'Transition Strategy' which is gradually a language in universal field theory.

From the position of many experts who has taken this subject seriously, there is a form of accounting that deals mainly with demographics of a country, that from these demographics, that they are able to state for sure what is happening in the life of any sector of the economy and not just the sector, the life of real estate and the individuals that compromise the economy.

In the circumstance, it is not uncommon that the above statistics concerning U.S Job has already been factored into the economy and this factor is not only the official numbers of U.S economy but also the sound statistics.

 However, there are certain areas of interest for instance manufacturing that deals with new and evolving U.S Market that is still outside the attentions of this administration, such that 55, 000 of the 190, 000 jobs in U.S were driven by the food lines and not necessary manufacturing, gives us a better view of the general effect of an American Market that is struggling to adjust to new realities of immigration and competition from the BRIC nations.

It is not uncommon to develop these jobs along the lines of food and clothing, and this areas represents what is more pressing in U.S and it reference to the mathematics of Stock Prices and building more ecological farms and the underwater constructions are business and venture business that are likely to occupy the rest of the economic decade.

But of course, this may be expected from an economy recovering from the Depression of 2008

to a period of prosperity which is mildly associated with economic opportunity of a Shakeout, for here at least and in this opening rounds of the shakeout, Bond market is believed much more beneficial to individual or institutional investors. With the ‘shakeout’ period of any economy in the world, the general argument is that deflation is the greatest concern and it is no brainier giving the shift from the stock of real investment to Bond market.

Commensurate to this deflationary ridden market is the role of government in promoting the healthy life of the Market and this they do through extension of loan credit to first time IPOs and new companies charging towards the stage of Innovation in any market.

                                            

                                                                III

There is something about this ‘Shakeout’ period which people should take seriously, that as far the four term cycle of the President, it is not always easy to begin to create better margin for businesses rather, it is one or so into the presidents second half that can money spent through ‘quantitative easing’ may be begin generate the requisite ROI; Return on Investment. For this and other reason concerning the health of the country and plausible argument on deflationary tract following a shakeout, interest rate remains at the lowest in history.

It is therefore common sense to indicate that the U.S economy may be poised to take bullish run beginning at least in December of 2013 which is the end of Obama’s first year of his second term and may likely continue into 2016.   

There are more concerns of our current economy with due respect to one, the activity of the Feds and to another, the issues associated with what may be called Transition strategy regarding not so much the health of any economy or how it transforms the life of its citizens. Obviously, the emphasis on technology is not reason, but as far as can be suggested, there is growing gap between rich Americans and not so rich.

Generally, transition strategy occurs at any level of a company, or any economy, or at any life of a product life over a period of time.    

Going at the current rate of manufacturing index in U.S and the number of buildings on sale across the Bible belt, it is not wrong that one of the Chief elements of U.S Economy, Manufacturing (once pushed to the rear) is slowly recovering. It is however difficult to estimate how quickly it will take to reach new levels going forward yet we can say that the good signs from shed unemployment rate in the country is without the Sharpe for real time Manufacturing and not just orders for durable goods.

                                                   Tesla and the ‘Teste of Process’

One of the new IPOs that have broken the barriers for new companies and seeking new partnerships and frontier is Tesla Motors. It is no secret that the company has featured well in the annals of list makers and made the full frontal page on Paper and Internet News agencies, but it mountain to climb to meet the obligations of the general Americans.

There may be other incentives that make it  possible for this to happen, and there is comfort from the fact that it may be decided thorough the new initiatives towards communications, affordable Health Care ‘Obama Care’ and Clean Energy would have served their purpose for the American Economy

But the trial of this comparison and the actual 'Teste of Process' and stress in Obama’s administration may in times like this be reduced to U.S manufacturing and for one, Tesla, which despite being outside the creative ego of Obama, may serve as the better ‘teste’ of Obama reforms and unlike GM and Obama, the litmus paper for this government towards a better America that is gradually exceeding F.D.R's, is Tesla and not GM.

From Tesla, we may begin to lay out the argument about the fundamental seismic changes in the Labor market and manufacturing which U.S or the World may or may not ready for. Perhaps Tesla is not the only company but it is one of the major landmark car companies that is both a symptom of the American cultural past and the meaning of current administrative of process by Obama, it in fat connotes the success and failures of the electric car companies in an age of fuel guzzling. 

Robin Chase, Zip Car Owner and Co-founder, once indicated that 'Infrastructure is destiny' and from the paraphrased onion she attempted to make believe that the infrastructure that we build today, perhaps according to our making and maturation, determines the lives we are likely to lead a few decades on. She went on to suggest that with the age of subways coming to an end in 1920's and particularly 1914, came the idea of Motor vehicles and these cars constituted the baring limits of mobility around the Country or in the world.

And with due respect to this age and time, she mentioned that it was up to us to design cars for the future and promote clean air technology that may help in the years going forward to manage the addiction to Crude Oil Cars. In part, we may look at the role that both Zip Car and Tesla will play in a nation that is coming to grips with its industries. We may also these two companies are not the only two of many Car companies currently operating in the States.

We want to indicate that if Tesla or Zip Car would emerge now as the Motor Car company of the future, they bring to the table the direct and indirect problems that U.S in facing, that not only are these companies lacking in strategy or delivery, the point about the  Local Car Company...

Going at the current rate of manufacturing index in U.S and the number of buildings on sale across the Bible belt, it is not wrong that one of the Chief elements of U.S Economy, Manufacturing, is pushed to the rear. It is difficult to estimate how unemployment rate in the country has diminished in numbers without the Sharpe for real time Manufacturing and not just orders for durable goods.

One of the new IPOs that have broken the barriers for new companies and seeking new partnerships and frontier is Tesla Motors. It is no secret that the company has featured well in the annals of list makers and made the full frontal page on Paper and Internet News agencies, but it mountain to climb to meet the obligations of the general Americans.

Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams ‘Macrowikinomincs’;2010, were also aware of the challenges that new car companies have to face but have the hope that these companies are surviving better largely for the fact that GM and other Detroit auto giants are experiencing problems of new market. For these group of experts there is still a trail of hope for new car companies although old transport facilities are preferred with due respect to the clean air technology and the emission of CO2 which consumption of fuel is generating.

According to this partnership, ‘on average one car generates 28 tons of waste and pollutes 1, 421 cubic air, just in its manufacturing’, that ‘600 million cars on the road today account for 10 percent of  CO2 emissions,...’ and that “Unburdened by the legacies that encumber incumbent manufacturers like GM, America Start-up like Tesla Motors, Fisker Automotive, V-Vehicle, and Coda-Automotive are rolling electric, hybrid, and other innovative vehicles.”

Yet having several companies such as Frisker, V-Vehicles, Local Cars, Coda- Automotive, Zip Car or Tesla Cars, playing along the giants such as Toyota, Peugeot, GM, Ford, Benz, Mazda, Volvo, etc, is an obstacle that need rely on the trial on clean air technologies or manufacture of electric cars, which is reality 21^st century with the 18^th century invention.  

Far more daunting is the statistics associated with Cars in both mature markets like U.S and in the Internationals such as Asia, where as in 2008 ‘the world’s expansive road network covered some 70 million kilometers – enough road-way to build 180 expressways to the moon’ and there are estimates of a China with 700 million cars by 2050, estimates will prove that emphasis on clean air vehicles and other green initiatives may not meet the demands of the general public its lineage towards

With hope that if China achieves half the dream in setting standards, the same might apply in the States and Canada, with Brazil and India pushing the same initiatives, that future will be closer than is currently projected.  

                                                      IV

More than once, I for one, has compared this decades economic activity with the 1920's, especially the area of automotive industries that for instance, the rise of Ford Cars and the consequent rise of other automobile industries in the 20's co-incidence with the steady momentum of the Stock, and far from Coal as the main engine for Energy Supply, there was also the issue of Crude oil to replace it.

The rates in the 20's the as now were also low and there was Europe then and now (recently) as a continent that tethered on breakdown, where as the Americans were surviving at slightly higher rate than their antecedents.

Within the joy of making New Cars and new forms of Energy technology was population explosion in the states and the immigration problem associated today with Mexicans and Asians, where as in the 20's it was associated with Irish and Italians and other ethnic minorities.

Then, the natural projection of many economist and sympathizes was that of an America that was gradually succumbing to the fealty of immigrants from Russia, Hungary, Ireland, Italy etc, and the Great Depression that followed their outrages proved a general point for all and asunder and heightened the reserves, especially in the North.

But U.S actually got stronger with immigration, not because it allowed foreign to force them out of their old ways; rather it embarked on a future that was beyond the years of his competitors.

In the 20's, productive capacity of Manufacturing Industries ebbed and flowed and the problems of Productivity took difficult and uncertain path, but where the U.S government was convinced of the profits of future rewards of such efforts, it continued with projects that was beyond the grasp of the general public.

The result was a country that was more than ready for the 20^th century and more than matched the challenges from Western Europe in time of crisis or their Finest Hours(?). 

Obama is interested in doing the most possible to ensure sufficiency of Fiscal Cash, both to the bank and the consuming public.  Such actions are 180 degrees different from the 20's freer economy but the comparison does not falter or the missions dissimilar. If from bigger and more mature companies smaller cooperation emerge, then the new found means and the found ways of creating and localizing industries – including clean air technology might be a right tract for the  country and for investors moving on.