Chance and Total Expectation

A Chance

A man called himself Chance on the theory that a protein responsible for coding for Melanin during his mother's and father's meiosis did not open, and the result was a child of yellow hair and white skin who they call Albino. From a distance he looks Russian and closer he looks like rare White specie. What are the chances that a child of two Black African parents could actually be white? In recent times in Nigeria, there are instances of these cases where Black parents literally give birth to light skin and not albino children.

What are the chances that Black parents could give birth to Albino kids? The chance for this occurrence is as common as the next born child.

What are the chances that the two White Parents could produce Black kids? The chance for this sort of happening is not exactly common through history. That is even if the father is African of the first race, the parents of a black man and a white woman usually lead to a mixed variety. This is the problem. It seems that expectations are concomitant with chances of two probable extremes, either one or the other, and for that to take place one outcome is only likely to occupy the minds of certain persons of interest.

In essence, there is practically no point is expecting two black parents to give birth to a white child, or two white parents to give birth to a black child. There is also no need to force the expectations of the parents to linger between the male and female gender of the child given the fact that during meiosis, the attraction between male and female zygote determines these outcome.

It is argued that it all comes down to the.....Now would it be strange to suggest that a certain parent's expectation for a child of any given variety is somewhat more or less frivolous than a parent's expectation for a child of normal variety. The answer is that both expectations have little or nothing to do with the overall process of child bearing. Of course, these days’ parents may decide what kind of a child they want, and in this case, we are no longer dealing on expectations or unknowns, we are dealing with a form fulfilling.

There is what we may regard as normal expectations, which as many psychologists have written arrives at our humanity from the standpoint of self preservation and self preservation from selfish genes is the central core of the general world of Risk and not necessarily Chance. Because of this enormous faith in one's own bias, human beings naturally succumb to the temptations of chance within a Total Expectation.

But there is such a thing as total expectations which are the real definition of world of chance. In essence, if we expecting a child of similar or unfamiliar verity, we must be willing to accept that the total conditions involved in the process of child bearing may be too powerful to accommodate the shallow expectations of one parent group. To be fair, we need to mention that as far as changes taking place in a society or involved in the process of giving birth to a child, no one Human Being is exactly alike, and this includes the seeming abnormality of having racially dissimilar children from parents of a racial type or animal of common stock.

When we experience large strophe of changes within a specific environment, it is really part of the overall expectation. That is changes that are so sudden and so abnormal usually follow a pattern that reverts to a course - perhaps a different course, and not necessarily to original line. In reality, the saying that prices have not history may be true, but overall price of a piece of a stock may assume a new territory all together and from this territory, new price line is reached.

People lose money in the market for failing to absorb the total expectations of the market, which is not due to individual highly opinionated thrust but on the possibility that an outcome is more than likely.

Why are then the people know this much yet every day we make the same mistake. One of the problems associated with this price has no history as Economist has proved, and in spite of what the price said ten years ago, there is event horizon that makes the reverting quite impossible. As such the Moving Average incorporates some of the changes that can take place in a given environment over a given period of time, so also chance, which is infinite, so also price subject to changes and why we make money up or down. 
     
One way we measure the nature of undue risk is the left and right of our expectations against the right and left of total expectations in a system. Is a system of thinking and of private expectation in business hold any meaning to the overall expectations in a given market? For instance, what are chances that the general stock real capital is suggesting an investment with less than 2% over the two years, and the total expectations of the general markets informs us of this possibility, we can begin to guess on the errors associated with a belief system and therefore risk, when within the same market we are expecting 4% percent returns for the same number of years.

The Chance of achieving this theory in many markets is quite low and in fact not possible largely for the fact that changes do take within a given time that should compel the total expectation in less than two years to move in either direction. 

Scenario one

(1) What are the chances that total theory compounded by the total amount of 'theories' from available total information on a subject, which if subject to the same process will turn out to be the same thing. ....Using Arithmetic, what are the chances that 10 people will read through the same book and interpret the book exactly the same way? What are the chances that an average Musician, perhaps a Pianist, will perform the same piece exactly as any of the last ten before them? What are the chances that you will never grow old, tired, or die? What are the chances that the set of tossed coins will land in exactly the same way?   

Scenario two

(2) what are the chances that the total savings on an average American or anyone in Insurance will be equal to the amount paid after delivering a 30 year Insurance premium. In essence, even if we add the interest rate coefficient of over the 30 year compounding, what are the chances that a man or woman will receive the quoted amount. The reality is that despite what is assured of these group and people, there is no saying that any person will live that long. 

Scenario three

(3) We are watching game six of the 2013 NBA final games between San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat, and sometime towards the end of the game, the Spurs had the ‘chance’ to conclude the win but they didn’t. The spurs were ahead in the series 3-2 and are one win away from claiming the championship but actually lost. The Spurs went on to the next game to lose the championship, but before the 7^th and final game, many of their fans have already lost hope citing that game 6 was the spurs chance to conclude the series and win the cup. In essence, the Spurs missed the chance to win the championship.

The question, why did the fans of the Spurs team lose their faith in the team? And the Second question which is also a theme is, if opportunity was truly the Spurs’ why did it come only once? If we comb backwards to that game 6, we will find out that the Miami Heat and Spurs did not simultaneously win the game or lose the game. Only one team lost the game and the other lost. It does appear that the chance for Spurs to win the game which didn’t convert is not lost at all it simply transferred from one form to another, from the opportunity or the chance to win a game for the Spurs which they failed to use to another chance for the Miami Heat to win the game. 

Two chances cannot be created at the same time unless both parties decide on the outcome. It can see that when two people agree with each other, it is no longer chance, in reality they created their own chance to either agree or disagree. For that opportunity or Chance to accomplish anything or win anything is precisely the measure of equal opportunity to lose or have the opponent use. For every conceivable opportunity or Chance is equal and opposing chance and opportunity for that no-Chance and no-Opportunity to take please. It therefore unrealistic that chance or opportunity to exist outside the wishful thinking of say a Spur’s fans wishing to win a game that don’t already have. 

Chance in any circumstance is not equal to any opportunity, Chance is a product of self preservation, as if we preying on a process as if to Cheat a system. The most we can make of what we can call Chance or opportunity, is meeting a preset obligation which is equal to time and bodes well for business of all kinds and for all reasons. What are the chances that a man for instance will lose some money in business with high risk?  There are no chances in taking risk, risk is the degree through which maximize our time in business and minimize the opportunities.

To be very common, we can argue that if a man and a woman do not for instance protect each other through intercourse, we can say that either parties is increasing the risk of being STD infected, and the word chance is equal to the very act. What if these two parties knowing the two probably end decides to take actions to forestall the risk, you will release that the Chance disappears and both parties, either through marriage or extra-caution take adequate coverage, there will no excuse and Chance will manufacture all excuses becomes one side of coin which has both sides.  

The rest is the gut of irrationality which is rationality.    

This is what perhaps happens when we place emphasis on a natural sequence, we may tend to believe that a sequence of any type, sequence based on the most definite measure of information, or numbers will ultimately yield a definite measure of information. This is a fixed condition. For instance 2+2 is naturally expected to give us 4. That is the common reality that 2+2 is 4 is also part of the total reality that 2+2 is 4. This may also mean that that the Chance of 2+2 to produce 5 is as a good as one good as one man in of him having children 5 children in 4 divided by 2 years.

So if this is the case, is it still possible to think that those who expect 2+2 to give 5 should be taken seriously. The answer is no. So why do people bet on this probability that out of nowhere, the Sun will dim and the moon will darken and then there is Eclipse. This kind of bet is not at all realistic and many people generally will not bet on such an outcome, however, there is a chance that the majority of the Average Joes, including the author, will price into the sky the possibility of a rain falling when a change occurs, where in the cause of this change, the sky becomes cloudy and looks to pour all of a sudden.

The only reason people study changes in the market or the sky is to form an estimate possibility, a form of total expectation based almost entirely on the outcomes characteristic of the event. As such the more of the total expectation of an event increases with probably known outcomes, the lesser the reward for instance, the less surprise the outcome is. In essence the total expectation of known outcome inversely related to the surprise/rewards of the outcome.

More than any time, many people are taken to this kind of expression, is that it is based on an event horizon. But in market where there is profit from goods which may lead to self preservation, there are now questions of one's position and opinions and time. These last measures in the whole intellectual item are the better way of expressing the cover story associated with Risk in the Business and Risk management.  

To that end, we may also suggest that as far as Chance in business is concerned, it can vibe reduced to anyone’s formal reaction to the immediate circumstance or relies on one’s ability to deliberately make a plan and follow up the plan with allotted time. Chance is not opportunity created, chance is the distance between the ends and means, for chance to be equal to one incident should also mean that chance is infinitely possible and can be present everywhere. Opportunity may in of itself be considered arbitrary, largely, for the fact that opportunity is either an error within a fictional process or a preconceived privilege outside the non fictional process.

 Total expectations

 Many a times in the long history of human beings we hear some sayings that the 'dirt breeds dirt' 'birds of the same feather flock together' 'bad habit corrupts good manners' 'tell me your friends and I will tell you who you are' 'guilty by association' or perhaps these terms, separating 'goods eggs from bad eggs' 'weeds from the tars' and from these slew of interesting citations, it is possible to suggest that the human beings in their long history have always seem that a crowd of people is likely to affect the way we do things and that human beings tend to field their own ideology along with others.

It is quite revealing is that the tall tales about the company we keep can also be represented mathematically, and particularly as a set of ordinals where the optimum behavior of a single value say y in series of xy+yy+zy = 12 is important is determining how other letters or values within the series perform. That is finding the value of y in the stated series can determine the optimality of each of the letters or values in the literal expression. That is assuming the values of the letters other y is not known, where as one of the y must be different from original y, hence a bracket of possibility, its optimality.

Well this is not the point of our discourse but it is close to the theory of Total Expectation, not that the optimality is ridden to topology but we are also considering the use of such expression in letting us suggest that the formula of Total Expectation does not collapse into the ‘fact or true’ theorem, rather, Total Expectation is closer to the Theory of Chance around a previously known outcome, such that consideration regarding the outcome of any case becomes more important than the process, or considerations regarding an end becomes more important than means leading to the conclusion; the outcome.   

Total Expectation is a field that may be different from crowd psychology which is a field that Ida B. Wells on her attempts to stop public lynching of Black males, that it was clear to her that many people who got involved in the lynching process had no idea what they were doing, that the crowd usually swallows the minds of the general public and that the body of the victim is so disfigured by the lynching crowd and some of them die before even getting there. But crowd psychology from the position of experts including Freud, tend to determine why some people withdraw from participating in a riot and others do, and such may also lead to whom new avenues.

These days, psychology is easily reduced to mathematics and it is not that difficult to mathematically determine the equation for Crowd Psychology.

However, we may equally indicate that though it seems proper that Crowd Psychology is the same total behavior and total expectations, it may not exactly be different yet the final points of these varying degrees of studies if of great importance. In reality, Total Expectations is not so much the process involved in Crowd Psychology and is not the behavioral sensitivities and complex, rather, Total Expectations deals on the ends from means and not the means, it tend to suggest that final points or the last resolution or ends results of a situation is of greater importance than the equally important process. What is for instance the total expectations of a society that choose six.  

For instance we can still question what happens when we find for instance all men involved in a riot or all women involved in riot, for instance in the famous Aba Women Riot of 1929, where women took the town and demonstrated to the point that the strategically damaged property owned by colonial office and their anger was supposedly well coordinated towards their demands.

The outing of the Egyptian President is an example that merits a second look at the circumstance surrounding the rise of Crowd against their government.

A crowd of women they say behave like one man, and a crowd of men behave like one woman

It  is important how that fit into the mirror of public expectations, for sure most grouped together are less inclined to augur out their natural instincts as opposed to women who though capable on the same vice as their men as less expected or required by society to act out their excesses. 

As such, women sometimes mislead themselves into accepting that unless they do some brutal maneuvers, they will not be taken seriously in social circumstances. This leads a crowd of women protesting or involved ins come gathering, to act like they mean it and in the process unleashing their own version of a vice-ridden primary nature. As such it may seem wise to ask a crowd of women to lead protect and make sure their points are taken seriously.  

Total expectation is the process of determining a choice when the outcomes are already known and it seems to be different from the Crowd psychology associated with people who are not sure of what they are doing,

Total expectation is derived from the saying that ‘whole is larger than the sum of the parts’ that to say that the sum of the parts does in mathematics or Physic give us the whole. Of which case, the end is not always equal to the means or the means equal to the final result. A choice is not always a product of the process involved in many the choice; a choice may also include the final renown

If for instance that a certain soldier is asked to do the work of very popular individual and he or she does the work to the great and useful level, what are the chances that the number of soldiers that are asked to do this kind of job will not fail to meet obligation. The chance will depend on a number of important items, but the end result will become far more important than the process if these soldiers are composed mainly of Women.

In essence we may consider that the process involved in achieving the desired or set result is not important any longer than the set result, and for that the achieving any the desired answer takes a larger role than the process and when the process is also pursued completely will not in the end be equal to the said results.

Scenario one,

A man by name George Zimmerman is accused of murder in first degree of a 17 year old, and at the time that Zimmerman called the Police and the response team, he pleaded that the shooting was in self defense. The Police ruled that the Zimmerman defended himself and refused to indict the him until the families of the victims asked for a response from D.A and then the trial date was set. During the Jury selection period, both parties the Prosecutors and Defenders, reduced their choice to 6 women who were asked to represent the interest of the general public. Jury composed of only women.

Now what are the chances that this jury composed only of women (one ordinal) will exercise the right judgment in the case against the Zimmerman. Of course, the trial can only go two ways and either way, there is lots of restitution. It may not seem to any man or woman looking at the case that the case is probably already decided. That is the process of adjuration that should amount the result by the choosing a first level ordinal denies the process a part in the final solution.

In reality it may seem that the question and answer period and the court battles of the parties involved would actually determine the position of the Jury on so sensitive a matter, but by Total Expectation, we can also assure that the outcome of the case or the ends of the case or trial has little or no bearing to the means.

By Total expectation we can argue that in order to understand what is in the minds of the Jury; only of women, we should look at other issues as stake, that one this is a sensitive popular and social dissent trial and two, it is a case that will talk about in years to come and may or may not have far reaching social consequence but always serve as a form of rebuttal a case of this nature is handled, that is a legal precedence. Three, you are looking anyone shooting a Black Male in a place like Florida and against all mischievous indulged by others, this single group is the least tolerated even by black women, and such the larger question is what do the public really want. Four, you are talking about a case that could set a standard on how Jury can be selected in future and if a ‘teste of process’ of some level that accompanies that decision of the people.

Lastly and most important of all, you have a jury composed only of women. This last factor under regular circumstances will not matter and there are lots of cases involving an all women jury, but this one does. In making this sort of selection in a case that entered public eyes, it comes to expectations and no longer a matter of right and wrong. In reality, we should be asking the Court how it arrived at this solution since opinions is a citizen to no body. What these women will ask themselves if how the public will perceive their actions and their decision. Will the Public think of them as a women who didn’t have the heart to convict a villain like Zimmerman is proven so, or will the public see these women and other would members of jury composed of women, is people who were naturally prone to the improbable outcome of a case with some moral bias and no moral guarantee.

The Court decided this case, for seem at least to me  that it is about statement, it not so much a case of women’s intelligence which they have or their personal capability which they have in kind, but as a bet on the moral evolution of a society that has conceived of women as emotionally unstable. Here is the trick, which I will bet anyone, that the case between the People of Florida and Zimmerman will end in decisive ‘Not Guilty’ by the Jury. There is no way that history will not be made from the case there is no way that some people will not have anything to discuss about the case after now and for that the end results and the statement it will make is more important than the whole defenses and prosecuting that is going, and the Court and the attorneys knew this and choose a first ordinal whose interest will be reduced to Total Expectations of the Public. The Prosecutor should have been relieved of their duty or have the transferred from the court for other reasons.

It is only in the last few days that it might seem that the first ordinal like having an all female jury in Zimmerman’s case would lean towards a resolution, that for that fact that Public opinion seem to have been factored into the process, these women are set to cast a ballot which will not correspond to the Public Expectation or in some case between anyone and any black of jury composed mainly of Whites, it will read North Guilty, if the circumstances are not less obvious or more than 1.

Prove of this is that total expectation is always less than one, to the more optimal degree the conclusion of slough of the probable conclusion is already known, that when a single entity for instance a Black Male is trial of his life against a White Male, Pascal Theory of Sympathy or Self Love suggests that the Judge and Jury will render the fairest judgment only because of the Total Expectation of the general public which is never the same as the incident or facts from the incident and never equal to 1.

Hence, there will questions of injustice or administrative of justice. In order, it will seem more than obvious that a Jury of only White or a Jury on Only Black Male would side the Black Male in no so obvious case, and for that they are conditions by Public expectations to try something else. The only to have jury escape the Total Public Expectation on the matter, are to keep the case private and within the ‘moral certainty’ of the Court which though does not exist will help the Jury decide entirely on their volition.

Once more, we can still that though it may not seem apparent that the women were selected for a reason other the courting of controversy, that it is actually the case, for sure, the defense may make a poor show at the court and the prosecutors may have the day but for the fact that these women – some of them minority and of them blacks – have an opportunity to make or break a case, we should expect the least empathy, they have prove to be as tough as the men or even twice as hard.

It might be better to first discuss some other issues before proceeding.

Scenario two,

You will probably wonder why Banks are very quick to offer loans to people with very expensive top of chain Grand Estate – even if they are affluent which does not mean that have good credit?. Whereas, you and I have problems getting a new set of loan from a different Bank even our old ones without rigorously process that sometimes mitigate against your time and business. And when they start, these Banks if you have noticed pill up their rules on you and make you sign all kinds of paper for a miserly sum.  

The answer is that the Bank believes the Affluent man or woman with so-so credit will likely lose the building and for the money quoted at the time you signed on the business and later, the once affluent man or woman will wind up losing the house and owning the Bank. The call it predatory lending and these Banks are not doing anything wrong. Is such that they know that the average individual is happy with a deal he’s not worth or deal that he or she didn’t qualify and such the total expectation of the individual making the loans is clearly different from the one taking the deal, but the Bank in making such a deal, already determined the end which will not have anything to do with the current financial condition of the borrower.

In essence, most people who take deals do not always meet the target, they either fall short or they shoot over – for instance flipping the house. But so affluent a Grand Estate, there is little and no chance of selling the house and nobody will ask you how you got the deal once it’s in decay.

Dodd-Frank new laws is set to inveigh against this practice, largely for that fact that Banks who gave such credit expected you to lose it, even if means bribing the Board of Education as with New York. The problem is that many people will have problem understanding this theory from this point, but we cannot fail to suggest that the Total Expectations of the General public is usually different reality, and that been said, a process is only expected to logically lead to a good ending but most often than not it does not.

Scenario three

You will expect that in business condition of life, that it is the stronger that will rule the weaker, for instance, the 10^Th planet called NBA is littered with African Americans. The general public suspicion or Total Expectation of nearly everyone is that these African Americans also called Blacks will rule the business climate of the Americans as well, but in reality, Blacks are literally under the thumb of others. Why? What total expectation may also suggest is that it is not the strong that rules the weak in business circumstances of everyday life it is the weak that rule the strong. The reason for is that a total expectation is already built into the minds of say a host country that is for instance my country and the migratory small and weak snake (“the guest”) as Harvard University Professors put it, that wind up chasing the big snake and host from its tree. It is woman that wins the male in official social pursuit.  

In a fight where Mohammed Ali takes on George Foreman, Public expectations varied and Ali emerged champion and was immortalized from the victory. However, if a fight is to take place between Ali and any old woman – even if she’s Ali’s age or slightly older or younger- will create a problem. Here’s why the organizers in choosing such an opponent for Ali buries everyone’s expectations, and therefore decided the case against Ali assuming he takes up the fight. He might accept the fight and she might accept the first and Ali will emerge the champion but only for the Night. From the end of the fight he will never recover his reputation. Perhaps an Old Woman is not a best example, we replaced with an old man, as long as Public Expectations are factored into the equation; the process no longer matters.

In a study of 300 divorces involving rich and affluent Americans, about 295 of cases was decided in the favor of the woman and she parted with undeserved wealth and not a penny of hers. It was only the case of Jennifer Lopez and Madonna and one of the Hiltons that the Court decided against their favor and they went on to split a reasonable part of their money. The question is why? Why do the men always lose so much of their earnings to the women or wives in court especially when money is involved? A clear look at the laws does not show any bias. It is the expectation that female is weaker sex even if that is not always the really the case. The rule here is that Total Expectation is an undiagnosed factor that determines the outcome of cases even before it started.

It is said that out of a collection of 2,000 cases of Step Children from both different mother and father, 90% of these children were abused by their step mothers and the rest abused by step father and usually sexually. One would expect the abuse to come from the father and not the mother, but it turns out the exact opposite. Why? More than 7 out of every 10 model is said to be single and not married, that is contrary to what is expected, and in terms of women not necessarily considered beautiful are said to have more a fair share of the male. Why?