Debt and Decline of Crude oil prices Dec.19th. 2014

By

Sampson Iroabuchi Onwuka

How does it end and when does the BID for Crude oil begin? Looking at the shoddy details of Crude oil and the expectations that crude oil is likely to drop to $40 it’s is an institutional investors’ dream. But the idea that a peak oil in June at $115 for Brent has a staying power reaching to $150. This is not the case, $150 per barrel is not nearly the case and Brent has a chance of returning on high by 2015, perhaps not a $150 a barrel given US defensive and dynamic weighting on Social Security. The debacle that has visited the market took many traders by surprise and they were surprise to see market end at a very low rate this year, whipping out all of the gains in some EU industries this year alone. US market is equally affected, at least by the extra profit it earns by this time of the year which now stagnates, perhaps due to the release of excess capacity by OPEC which is struggling with amount and not rate OPEC is still threatening to consider its supply when the prices drop to $40, but this timing may not come since at $50 Crude oil is perhaps a good buy but at $57 and at December 15th, 2014, we are not sure when this buy will exactly begin. We may look at the incident in many of world and how they are shaping the end of Crude oil shedding or the cause of it, from (1) Russia, the Economic Sanctions by NATO, EU and US is red face on its International Complex. Russian Banks signaled in October that when crude oil prices fall below $60 they will intervene. As such it seems that Russia is not immune to the problems of crude oil and energy has taken new and direct forms in the United States in the World. The crisis of 1998 that saw contraction reaching into Asia are still reasonably fresh, but then as well now, we may regard the role of India and China as very important, large for (2) China, whose presence in Global market is well known and everywhere seen, above all, but the instability in Russia that is facing crisis and China that are dealing with inflation calls for a new translation, does not translate into the forces mitigating against the Crude oil market. We have also forgotten some efforts made by China in reducing their dependency on Crude Oil, while they were making business contacts with Nigeria off-shore drilling oil, China was trying to acquire Unocal, attempted to also buy a section of Russian STU, the two deals where restrained saving a new partnership in Gas in Russia which finally came through a few years ago. But in Africa, Chinese are Uganda, in Angola, in Ghana, in Kenya, and in Sudan, all with duplicated Crude oil refinery equipment. Over time, there will be less reliance on these areas for Crude Oil since with happy face China is really sabotaging these industries.     

Obviously, having OPEC release its spare and excess capacity at a rate not exactly seen before may be their way of dealing with US interest rate which has remained low for a long time. But this is only speculative since a Karen Ward of HSBC has indicated that Saudi Arabia may be better off with a reasonable priced crude oil to balance the budget. Reading through a popular Oil.NET popular sources by Steven Austin, he arranged some of the reasons why there are short falls in Crude oil prices, that ISIL disrupted production of Crude oil in Iraq, which some expert interpreted a spike on Crude oil prices, but Austin mention that people following the local news would have seen that “IS controls the central region of Iraq and eastern parts of Syria. All of Iraq's oil is in the Shia-populated southern Basra region of Iraq and the Kurdish region in the north of Iraq. IS has imposed a rule of terror across vast tracts of desert in the only region of Iraq that has little oil.” These meant that they were selling the coveted Crude Oil to whoever wanted to buy and did so without undue attention to the market. In reality, the short falls in Crude oil may have alerted OPEC countries including Nigeria and Venezuela and to some extent Libya to cut down on their number of production, but the effects can from somewhere else. There is however a second factor which Steve Austin mentioned that may have influenced the consumptive behavior of world markets especially those of US, that in 2005, US was still importing 60% of Crude oil, but since Obama and US dependency on foreign crude oil and gas has fallen to 30%. There are new and newer planned production hot spot in Alaska and North Dakota, and Wyoming has also re-opened for drilling. These ventures, especially the plans to begin Alaska’s Crude Oil, took Saudi Arabia that acted against the future trend of these dependence on foreign crude oil. We leave it as it appears that OPEC is not totally in control of its resources and some crude oil is reaching the world markets through other windows not necessarily under the canopy of Saudi Arabia. 

II

Part of the reasons why there is such a drop in US interest rate is perhaps to discourage the flooding of US market with sovereign wealth, an argument, it is also a relapse into an investment for the future from outside given the shocking gap in US overall individual savings. US Feds are not helping, they are privately owned with enough matching currency from the US Government, how much faith the US economy has on it’s relative to the performances of the Banks. But with the Feds buying as much they have from the Federal Government; Bonds, etc., they deny private placement on US securities which are not usually advisable when they exceed a 2 year. 30 year bellwether are usually left to the Federal Reserve or some big financial institution to handle. The problem with FEDs and big financial institutions is that they like the US treasuries are the generally keep of foreign Sovereign Wealth, that is a Country like Nigeria can invest in the US Federal Reserve through its crude oil market with a less than 1.5% profit over the next 30 years or thereabout. The other issue which many nations are not aware of is that the money is received in cash and is paid in the same amount when the securities expires. As such Nigerian Sovereign Wealth in US at $60 billion are only applied to debt owed by Nigeria to business registered through FDIC and others. Of course, in the life of these bonds and investment which the Feds are chief players, a lot of money switch hands between Europe and the United States, between United States and Asia such China and Japan who are the Americans largest IOU credit countries. With half the resources at the disposal of US Banks they essentially guarantee the life of the FEDS through their business interest in the United States. Left to the rest of the world and the institutions that can make any meaningful contribution, the major issue that are taken into context is the rate of debt repay which the Nations based on standard Crude oil or similar cash crop must meet in order to balance their budget at home and return of investment through debt which is difficult when Crude oil are refineries involved fall below market and expected rate. For instance, when Nigeria and any other International economies in the world buy into a business with a turnkey solution in Nigeria, for instance, the building of dams and electrical power stations in most remote places in Nigeria, either as an IMF industry or a business concierge, they inherit a debt when the Crude oil is perhaps selling at $70 and $80 a barrel and with US interest rate low are able to service their loans. But these international countries such as Nigeria could experience serious problems of repay when US interest rate begins to climb as it is due for 2015. Yet, the major event preceding these events are the failure of US to meet and balance budget without shifting its grounds on trade deficit. US trade deficit with low crude oil pricing is possible and may shift to surpluses as opposed to high price of crude oil.

Karen Ward ‘HSBC’ Senior Economist (Oct. 22 2014) ‘Economic of Falling Crude oil prices’ argues that short falls in Crude Oil prices may help countries such as

“In Saudi Arabia, for example, a $20 a barrel oil price would have balanced the budget in 2003 but in 2015 we estimate it will require $90 to cover its increased spending. Bahrain’s and Iran’s breakeven oil price is likely to be above $130 a barrel next year. Indeed, below $90, only the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar Cwould have budget surpluses in 2015.”

 “With no other ready sources of income, and spending commitments difficult to reshape, the deterioration in fiscal performance that comes with sustained declines in oil prices is sharp. At $70, for example, we estimate that Saudi Arabia’s budget shortfall would approach 10% of GDP next year; at $50, the deficit could exceed 15%.”

“However, the regional producers, which together account for more than 30% of global oil supply and, critically, 80% of OPEC output, have generated such large surpluses over the past decade that they have the balance-sheet strength to deal with lower-than-expected oil income.”

 

 

III

 

But at this period in the trade fare, we look at what happens to Nigeria and International Oil Rich countries when crude oil falls to $50 a barrel. With increases in interest rate and fund rate given the 1.1 trillion loans which are not service loans or loans to create money, we see an America that may have added a I trillion to its debt on one hand, but may be balancing its budget and trade deficit to somewhere below 2% from somewhere in 9%. In the first two quarters of early 2015, there are possibly signs that US may be hitting a surplus, which makes the argument lame and clear, that perhaps, US stock market is not without buying interest especially the Crude Oil. I take it that countries such as Nigeria and say Mexico, part of the new kids on the block – may become new kids on the chopping block should they scale their interest rate to US given the gaps in economic maturity, and far from what is happening in West Africa with Nigeria as Satellite, it may have a later day solution from the hands of Concentric Circles. A concentric economic circle involves a corporation between several countries in the world that share similar economic outputs.

 

Let us reverse the mention of the BRICS countries is what is now happening to Crude oil which is subordinate to International guarantees and to BRIC countries, that for instance the free market entreaties of Russia or its return to prime time, then China remaining free from International contamination and so also India, Brazil and South Africa. These nations are not strong consumption economies in spite of their size, that if look at the role of AIG in these countries parallel to what is available in the New group of MINT, which show life and dying attitude if not taken seriously. Of course, Indonesia like Mexico may not suffer from the problems that the BRICS may be bound to in the International market, but we can be sure that their lack of satellite placement and lack of comparative scaling for interest rate and rate of FDI is depended on how well it does with US. But Mexico is not US, and relapsing into US which torching on Canada or far away countries such as South Africa or Egypt or very cogent and realized bases, may be ridden to the permeable elements of inflation which are exported with a rise in US interest rate, that Mexico currencies will face the same faith in suffered in the past given its stand-alone structure to the US. With a structure measured through similar progressive countries such as Brazil or South Africa or perhaps Indonesia or to a large extent Turkey, it will scale down its bifurcation to US and will add more green to US invested interest when it came share its inflationary pressure through an International market, for instance the MINT countries, Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, that even to the extent of having similar currency may help to save them from a combined famine which an International market will experience under a rising US. The first signs of some problems with 2015 is the shortfalls in Indonesian and rupiah selling at 1.9% below its market    will bring to the table the problems of next year poised for interest rate. Carefully looking at the price Obama’s estimates are troubling, not that he is doing anything from his head, but going as late as 1970 when US was in this kind of situation, or middle rate as 1979, when crude oil prices reached a new premium, thing gradually fall apart as we entered in the earliest 80’s.     

 

Indonesia, Turkey, China, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia are element of business families that have graced the venturesome business partnership with Nigeria, all of these countries is the delineating years of Nigerian military administration itself a consequence and continuing evidence of a country or a nation in disarray or a showing of instability, from 70-75, 83-91, forcing Nigerian into long list of indebtedness tied to Oil companies and their spurious deals with OPEC oil International, whose final coming and repay scythe was a damage to the currency of these Nigerians. Today we may speak of a new co-operative indicia of MINT Coined by Jim ; composing of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, a grouping that alarmed the best of us since we are certain that Nigeria is only half awake from almost two decades of military dictatorship. If these four countries aspire stability especially through the currency, which is very important it may be meeting to scale their interest rate along the participating countries with perhaps a side note on Crude Oil. These countries commercially generate over 1 trillion dollars in GNP with Mexico nearing 1.7 trillion year to year, several hundred million behind Texas alone not adding California with over 2.3 trillion GDP. Nigerian from the list is lowest performing economy with only a few international measure of structural development to compare with Turkey and to some extent Mexico and Indonesia, where as Indonesia is clearly the largest market in the four in spite of its numbers. Mexico that is luckiest of all them suffers from similar high fate and ending, for if put the balkanization of Mexico Peso in the 1980’s and 90’s, we become weary if the new signs of depreciation will continue and for how long. Mexican Peso selling at 14.4 to 1 dollar is already showing signs of decay from just a decade and half since the inception of the new currency. It looks like the correlation of Mexican peso to dollars was a function of the export market, with US being the Chief ends of these exports. The issue of cost labor proved too quick an advantage but in receding years from 1993, the currency has gradually slipped to original challenges.

 

Bill Barnhart Market Report in 1995, reflected on a parallel quote from the Dec. 4, 1985, by Wall Street Journal: that Mexico “Today, instead of being a model for other nations, Mexico is a lesson in how at similar to Russia today that is offering over 17% interest rate is call for cash, leading peoples of the world including Mexicans to checker their savings and buy into the US. The damage is important, for to some Mexicans, the mistakes on the past may not be repeated in 2015. But this is not the case. As long as US interest rate remain this expensive at less 1% meaning don’t bother we flooding the market too quickly, Mexico may be save, to a point that a return rate through Crude Oil guarantee sustained supply of dollars, but with short falls on Crude oil, we can be certain that Mexico can’t keep up with servicing its Peso. Part of the reason is lack of international anchor and the reputation that Mexico enjoins. With interest rate taking a hike in US – at least up to 2% we may begin to see visible problems with the Peso and when it reaches a barrier of no return it mainly becomes too expensive to do business in Mexico with hundreds of peso to the dollar.

Money Market Interest Rates and Mortgage Rates, 1980–2002 |  

Apparently, supply as the economist Says mentioned could create its own demands, means that the erosion of the peso’s significance in the global macro was reduced to a banter with the states. With US trade deficit at all-time low and only one state, Texas, generating more money than Mexico combined, the real problems therefore is what the quality of the Mexican markets, which without international baskets, has no more meaning that the actions from prices as from US which is poised to raise its rate. I will bait any Mexican or Chicano that if US pushes up 2% interest, additional US capital will move from Mexico into US, it will create a negative balance sheet, a problem of inflation and the Peso in 16 months from here on, will dip 20 pesos for a dollar. Here is the conundrum, that as much as US is the Sun of world markets and satellites countries such as China who cannot really blame take their rest in the US and its economic sheltering, the human quality once an item quite severe with cross-border economics, not has little meaning saving through prices. In essence, the more we have countries in the world including the BRICS, create an economic conditioning that represses Foreign Direct Investment, the more into US for a kind of value which generate real income very fast. However when crisis come as they look in December of 2014, it could be driven by other reasons and things in the process, but in all, it could be driven by the lack of other sun states in the Global macro. That is to suggest that the depression of a Nigerian Naira, an Indonesian Rupiah, Turkish Lirah (who are accused of supporting IS by buying crude oil through them), and Mexican peso, will continue to decline unless interest rate its low and low for a very long time in US. Even at that, the cost of expansion, whose failures in Mexico was well received elsewhere means that the peso has no anchor anywhere else.     

 

Yet Nigeria is half a trillion in GNP with a few negligible sparing from other West African countries who account for a large percentage of new investment. In the long run, Nigeria may offer growth opportunity to West Africans, but they will continue buy Naira with US hard saved currency to offset, some of the shedding of the Naira. But it is their role as a regional economic headgear to demonstrate market direction in West Africa which should dominate the outlook of Business in nearer future. Some of the new investment in Nigeria also came through Europe, and here we can say that, EU moving back to its sources and dollars re-migrating to US when it does not need to, devalues the stock market and further forces interesting parties to escort their currency out of Nigeria. It takes toll of its value system and not really US’s fault, it makes it seem that US is avoiding loses whereas Nigeria like progressive International Country such as Mexico, or Indonesia, did not take advantage of low interest rate which China essentially buried itself into. In all compulsive understanding on how a process of that kind is resolved, we compare the problems of anchor and bifurcation to US and a primitive example of assuring a future for Mexico. Since 1994 it does not need to, it had opportunity then and now to enter new economic horizons which a MINT if their interest rates are scalable and a meeting surplus of the member countries are evident, then it may have crowd investment did not need to interfere with its future estimate as with the US market.

 

Whereas these Countries in comparative relationship with other groups of growing economy offer assortment of market and business interest, particularly in the areas of crude oil and in the area of paired resources especially for Mexico with both the opulence and resources to hold to their new found optimism in a shadow of new world market order. The argument is not that Nigeria cannot belong to this group given the structural weight of their industries, they have a shining example in Turkey but in terms of the penetration of businesses it is Indonesia, with Indonesia ahead of Philippines with higher mid-income earners and population exceeding 150 million (170 million), and these countries such as the Philippians and Indonesia are both English speaking countries which these days is just a normative and may be useful in delivering the market with comparable rate in resources between these countries and parts of them that speak French……

 

In respect to Mexico, it has a pairing through oil, a communication problem of history and language – that for Nigerians some idea easily Mexican in meaning is quite a mouth foul – and in respect to language, Spanish speakers or Latin Americans are almost unheard off. But these are temporary issue given their experience in dealing with US and Canada. But in form and in need, the scale of preference should place Mexican interest in Africa on a playing field such as Angola, not that Mexico need less penetration of its oil field, but in compact with OPEC which Mexico is not nearly part of, its presence in Africa gives a breathing space and may in the end save it from sinking further down with inflation since 1993 on its new currencies.

 

Whether or not Nigeria belongs with this MINT group is not a financial article, it is however important to point out that the country has a long history and the current new development in Nigeria is hardly the brighter days which for many economist is somewhere between the 70’s after the end of civil wars and sometime in the 80’s when the military returned to office. The economic progress in Nigeria and in the 80’s are still visible including factories which were built by Nigerians with some sparing from those left by the English and Dutch in the 60’s. These factories due to civil strife in the country fell into disrepute putting some dumb-ass clog in the wheels of the economic progress following a population that was expanding exponentially. The only remedy was the exchange rate which gave return of interest and investment to Nigerian business groups, all of these could not last given the increase in prices in doing business in Nigeria and West Africa, and with the Dutch system of matching Nigerian Debt to Oil Companies who fumbled military experts in Nigeria into signing documents left Nigeria indebted with cash call furnishing from banks that entered Nigeria through oil companies creating more and more problems for the exchange rate and in the end, the currency spread was so wide that Nigeria was called an economic crisis. It took long and practiced intents of newly elected Nigerians to gradually grind these forces to a halt, including the extra-ordinary effort by the Ngozi Okonji-Iweala, who asked through World Bank that the debt should be pardoned.

 

But in terms of material resources of South Africa and their highly indulgent attitude to business which is meeting for Asia Tigers, more responsible and complete given their levity to Europe and American opulence, their nomination into the BRIC as equal to BRICS is good and bad news, mostly good news since it savors South African entrenched mineral resources in the conceived and deceptive nudging of China who introduced South Africa to the BRIC and for the fact they have a better meme to settle against these Nigerians, their role was expanded. There are no degrees of possibilities for these countries to deal with South Africa, although South Africa is not Nigeria is attitude to business, it has healthy and very experienced traditional business environment that are not far behind any nation on earth including building nuclear energies, but are trapped along the lines of 1% super rich, poorer south Africans now in power, and are smaller markets compared to Nigeria. South Africa is truly a BRIC, it can manufacture anything for European and US industries and responsible for some of new line of green light in Nigeria and Ghana.  

 

There are several reasons behind the possibility of the breakdown in business relationship between Nigeria and these countries, especially Japan and Taiwan in the inception of Nigerian Electrical Power Authority (NEPA) and comparative quality of these co-operative countries in the 70”s to Nigeria. Their currency rates were much higher than it eventually became a few years later. In the earlier possibly imaginations of Nigeria struggling under the canopy of West African economies, it looks like the success of even the nearest Franco neighbors; Cameroun, Togo, Benin, and Niger, all surrounding Nigeria, including distant Gabon, found market Nigeria for their products making its way from France and production economies in the World. These the growth in West African countries is so zero that the gap now enjoyed between some Asia Tigers and Nigeria is not saved by the breaching of these gaps by South Africa. We may look for the reasons why there was such breakdown of business relationship between China and Nigeria in direct and active business co-existence in terms of the every other business of interest other primary government  arrangement, or for Taiwan its mouthpiece for long, to have been a problem derived from all…

 

It must be said that Nigeria from its earlier years has always stressed the importance of its currency, and from those earlier years until fairly recently, it has tried its hands with various means of managing its currency including the occasional attempt at reprinting its notes to stem the tide of laundry. Some of these measures seem to have worked their miracles but not all the time, and presently, we are dealing with some problems which deserve the attention of all our well-wishers. But in the currency cut throat business and its 'Currency War' of nations, no country can better advice Nigerians than Nigerians. It is obvious and large by the extent of buying indulgent charisma of re-telling of what happens to a green basket from mature can as they turn yellowish with time maturing into the brown baskets from cane. If you are lucky in getting to experience the transition evident in the general life of a green basket since the usual process is that it leads to something and perhaps an end. Africa history especially these new nations are perhaps not that different.

 

                                                               

                                                                    Miscellaneous

 

 

People driven by necessity would do what’s necessary to meet demands. But here, as we have argued, mineral and hard resources for Nigerian market are no foreign, and can be located in strange abundance in Nigeria which now mentions that the reasons why there was problem is the poor showing of Nigerian market in the world. Even with new industries in Cement for instance opening up in many parts of the country it is not enough at all to effectively meet demands even at a very high price. What a potential for consumption that Nigeria has for world markets, which for its reason and the reasons for new African frontiers since the Colonial eras if not through the slave trade era, that a country may look the promise of offering a market to goods reaching Africa or good manufactured from anywhere in Africa including South Africa. It may seem that the lack of standard shipyards are problems encountered in many part of the world, that Nigeria could better resolve with some attitude of how begin their help-yourself projects, projects that will co-inside with opportunities to dump on Nigerian markets as long their turn key investment with direct yield from debt investment categories. It leads here that the rate at which this could be realized will have do away with military past, for sure, many African countries, especially West African would find it comforting to re-issue their own overnight lending with Crude oil as basis for conversion to Nigerian currency, that as much as currency can flow from US, China, and Europe, where Africans, Nigerians (Nigerian Americans) in particular work for in odd jobs far below their rated certiorari can look at Crude oil as a banter in world markets, in channeling the amount of currency that could migrate to Africa. US penetration of Nigeria is counted through currency sent through Banks and Western Union, the currency is by itself a commodity – no different from any other product – that if migrates from one areas of the border another, it dictates the market where it essentially sees the light of translation and  exchange. In such cases, the idea of price as a function of the market or price of a function of a currency rate is give new meaning, that the currency wars between any foreign denomination against a local one when a banter such as Crude oil for Nigerian case or a banter such as common market item is no longer at ease.

 

The currency when not accounted for mitigates the local currencies leading for instance more Mexicans Pesos to redeem itself from other in-flock material currency or money laundered from Asia, US and Europe. Here for explicating deist, the idea of money laundering includes money simply not accounted for, whereas trade-deficit is a shift from equilibrium and the degree of that shift from the acceptable concept of x, y, z, which matters in names of black market and in names of shadow banking, that must be held to remain in the balance with the local exchange route unless there is a mitigation……  

 

Once more justifying some action chiefly motivated by money is placing a latch on the door made of papers. It is hardly the case that we may question some of the assumptions in the businesses of these foreigners in Africa or others in Asia and in Europe, or in reverse, people who visit some parts of world for private interest have their reasons for doing so. What we may argue is that the business interest and styles may differ, people may differ but generating income and benefit is sine qua non of co-existence, that efforts of any group of nations or continents in any part of world towards a future should be held together along the lines of the economic co-operatives, adding the protections of Commerce from rapacious attitude of the general public. It is here that the word I for disequilibrium and thou for attempt at economic equilibrium leads us to compare to what extent, say a new market with a helpful serving premise in West Africa could help generate an unforeseeable stability that necessary for growth in the Continent of Africa or how the regional franchise of their demand and supply market is buttressed elsewhere – either in some parts of the deeper SEA (South East Asia) or with some capacity enabled by reason that what may be achieved through scalability of Interest rate in North America or in Europe. Reading through Europe pamphlets for regional belter weight for African economic environment and business society, we cannot fail to have noticed that part of the heavily edited pamphlet is proof of their capacity to farm the region as part of the older exercised economic practices of extending European goods through trade fair and money function that they are scaled through overnight lending. It may seem that these pamphlet toeing the lines of IMF infrastructure and privatization schemes leading to single currency which by itself is non sequester and entirely flawed if not hurtful to world markets – going by any measure of economic theories – are so devised to enable both continents continue good businesses which is not the required business format for financial satellite systems for Africa and its third world economies, that opposing such pamphlet may be suggesting an opposition to some hints of financial colonialism which can be argued as the indirect motivation to seek new avenues. But this is not the case, the idea of region balance sheet for Africa and for several parts of world is no only faulty in its inception, it perpetuates the wrong notions of economic triumph which is legal tender can inaugurate and to a large extent, the pamphlets and their leading think-through are not sufficient in enabling the requisite changes necessary in Africa in general, or to be specific, in regions of Africa that require their own economic satellite. It looks from all standpoint that new emphasis on African markets and their exchange and buying power should be tolerated in many sensitive areas of economic business such as those of ECOWAS and some other good countries in Southern Africa led by South Africa. Perhaps the idea as a rotunda or watering hole should place Egypt as part of the landscape in the North, for if we compare the roles of Morocco and Egypt, we are at once at the torching stones Asia and decided interest from North Africa. It is all in gum thinking that it seems, that Nigerians in West Africa are neither concerned about the structure of businesses in Africa or structure of business in the world, that they are primarily concerned with survival making Nigeria by default a highly consumptive economy where other Africans with enough penetration capacity find their products and produce shipped even from South Africa or flown daily through air, ravished and consumed in matter of days and weeks. In the past, there are 34 airports in Nigeria, but in recent years many of them were forced to fold, largely for problems of maintenance and engineering which the balkanization of their local currency more than made difficult. No doubt Ghana barely surviving in West Africa do not account for the lack of materials in Ghana, their industrial revolution – making necessary products easily available or manufacturing meeting and beating estimate over a long period of time – has not taken full mobility. Worse than Ghana is Nigeria that can only generally boast of major structural changes besides the buildings which themselves were forced to erect due to very high demands of housing. It is longing to consider that a place such as Lagos as some observers have said were built by Nigerians – at least in the last half a century, lodging some of the numbers available or comparable to other active cities in world.  But like some of the countries that are grouped as MINT, these countries do have a major city that experiences and benefits from the most recent Government endeavors such a Mexico City that have a expansion leading to 17 million people, that is a fifth of all Mexicans live in Mexico City, which also means a reverting to partial equilibrium of a certain measure, which in the end could suggest that the problems of these MINT such as Mexico and Nigeria is the problem of equilibrium. Uneven development with emphasis on one or two areas of business or nexus point in these economies, such as Lagos Nigeria with about 17 million and with buildings reaching into the Island, may mislead an observer on the economic prowess of the nations. Perhaps he or she would travel to Abuja and see another vast expansion of population comparable to Austin in growth in the last 20 years, Abuja moved from 100 thousand people to 1.1 million and more in less 20 years, all in spite of heavy cost used to welter the attention on the capital. Such evidence is opulence in Port Harcourt, Rivers State and in parts of Ibadan in Oyo, give in and out on what population can do any economy and there is need for anchor.

 

The intent of nation builders has never been to forge a state that live forever or have a people too familiar with longevity of State such as Egypt and in mimesis Rome, speak of the Foundations that will last 10 thousand years. Perhaps Egypt and its claim to history reaching 100 thousand years, leaves much to be studied and desired concerning the evolution of a super-power and whether or not it is possible to gauge the age of this super power state from the corridors of politics or religion. Rome is not Egypt, rank far below Phoenician which they destroyed in Cartage, rank lower than Babylon, and in so far as the dominions of Persia and Assyria, Rome belong up there but nowhere formidable. Macedonians have a titled history that compares with Rome, their penetration into deeper areas of the world was compared mainly to Mongols and their Genghis Khan. In rear light of more recent stories, neither the French who no new comers to world business or the English or the Dutch approached the territorial integrity of these nations before them, including the long winded audacity of Islam who not only brought religion to their areas of world but also their business. If Syria is considered of all of the neighboring states to be link to Asia and Africa and Europe, attempts at taking Syria occupied leaders of all meaning going as far as Jordan and Egyptians whose obelisk are still found in several parts of that Peninsula. When the Mongols arrived in parts of Syria, they were not bringing religion to these cultures and people, they were interested in business and what the area could generate for them. When the Nestorians took their possession and religions to Turkey and into China, the religion survived but more than the religion, it was the Silk Road to China that remained the connecting point between China and the rest of the world. The comparison between Egypt as a super state separated from the problems of the Middle East or at least meddled of slovenly into it, it makes for the augment that the Amana letters where the Amurru and sheep hoards paint a picture of Egypt and pharaoh whose help were solicited, for troubles in these areas. Religion, people, politics and money are all part of the same struggle and require some measure of discipline to have access to what it could offer. Penetration to some parts of the world and Asia is a matter to be discussed along the corridors of US policy in Syria, especially the long and tedious relationship between Russia and the Arabs.

 

David Livingston traveling through parts of Africa believed that the future of Africa was to be revived through Christianity and Commerce, he wasn’t kidding, Livingston may have condemned East Africa but he was passed on a gentle man missionary, and even in our generation, some people consider this man who actions nearly mitigated against a whole generation of Africans are a saint. It is an understanding that emotions play into money but for all corners of world business and I for one, have tried to argue, people can only resist the advantage of price only for so long. If there was in Africa – even at the age of Slave trade – a market or a national economic fronting that was similar to what was available in Europe, the movement of resources would have shifted from Europe and the Americans or Asia to this area of importance in Africa. Lack of stable African markets is one of the abiding reasons why Slave trade endured, for if there was a stable African economy, these war Moorish wars in Spain and the course of redemption through labor under the Charles V, would not have materialized into Slave trade or so long. It was convenience of trafficking people for money to a place that was outside their means and ability that gave slave trade a whole century and half, and when the end came for slave trade and for renegade European soldiers who took interest in Gold in East Africa and diamonds in South Africa, that a new and more confounding problems of easing European market through rapacious African wealth took moral significance.